The Oscars 2025 race is shaping up to be one of the most unpredictable in recent years, with a diverse slate of contenders vying for the coveted Best Picture statue. In this article, I’ll be ranking all the nominees from my personal perspective, alongside my predictions for how the Academy is likely to vote. While I have my own favorites, I’ll also explore the factors that could influence the final outcome, from buzz-worthy performances to the political landscape surrounding each film. Read on for a breakdown of how I see the race playing out, with short explanations of why each film stands where it does.


My personal ranking	How I think it will be at the Oscars
#1 Anora This is exceptional cinema—funny, deep, and contextual. There is a lot to unpack and discuss. During my fourth time watching this film in the cinema (yes, no shame), I attended a discussion panel to observe and listen to other people's first thoughts (since I had plenty of time to reflect on it after seeing its premiere in Cannes). The discussion actually lasted for 1.5 hours instead of the planned 30 minutes. So, people get it—they are willing to talk about it and see different perspectives, which means that Sean Baker did his job excellently. Let’s also not forget the performance of the year by Mikey Madison.	#1 Anora This year is very tricky and unstable—we don’t have clear frontrunners in 4 out of 6 major categories, which makes Oscar season truly exciting. However, I have a feeling that wins at the DGA, PGA, and WGA might be just enough for Anora to take home the big prize. I’m not saying this with certainty, but if I have to pick something, this would be it. Sean Baker should win either Best Director or Best Original Screenplay, and that could be Anora’s path to Best Picture—even if Mikey Madison loses to Demi Moore and her compelling narrative.
#2 I'm Still Here What a beautiful movie—full of power, resilience, and stories that we must never forget. Ever. Because they keep happening, and most of us are too blind to notice until it’s too late. I was deeply moved and touched by it, especially since it struck a very personal chord with me as someone from Eastern Europe. Fernanda Torres and the cast are simply amazing in their roles. This is a film you just have to watch—and feel.	#2 Conclave I’m sure that between Anora and Conclave, it could come down to just 1% of the votes or how the ranking game plays out. The support behind the movie is strong, even though it has no chances in the acting categories and, surprisingly, the director is not a nominee. That’s why I put it at my number 2, right behind Anora.
#3 Wicked This one is pure joy. I was very hesitant before the premiere about the whole idea—the cast, the direction—but the final product delivered on every level I hoped for. Cynthia is a perfect Elphaba, Ariana is a perfect Glinda, and the performances are strong. The visual quirks aren’t always predictable, which makes the film even greater. They did their best under the immense pressure of adapting such a classic.	#3 The Brutalist I’m quite sure it’s #3 or #4 on the final ballot, and it will get a lot of praise for what Brady Corbet accomplished with just a $10 million budget. I don’t see any scenario where it wins, but it will be a great runner-up, and everyone involved with the project will gain a lot of recognition from it.
#4 Conclave This one is pure cinematography in every frame. A shocker that Edward Berger didn’t get a Director’s nod, but regardless, this movie is strong—it sends a message and is a pure visual joy. Even though I still have my doubts about the finale, it’s one of the great films of the season.	#4 A Complete Unknown I think the Academy will like it more than anyone thinks. A very good biopic is simply enough to be high on the ranking sheet for a lot of people. Can we blame them for voting for something they truly understand and enjoy? I don’t think so.
#5 The Brutalist It’s bold, it’s creative, and it’s VERY LONG. I agree with some people who say that it’s the most Oscar-bait film on the ballot, and that’s really obvious in everything the film does, from its overpretentious vibe to its runtime. But I still respect what Brady Corbet did with this one, and even though I wouldn’t rewatch it (sorry, I don’t have 3.5 hours for that), I truly appreciate the movie-going experience it provided.	#5 The Substance I think Demi Moore won an Oscar for herself with her Golden Globe speech, and that was the moment that helped the movie outperform during the season. Even if it gets some praise, the "slasher" final act won’t be very popular among voters. Plus, let’s not forget the sexist side of the Academy (hi, fellas, we don’t want you here anymore, thank you, bye). I would consider the Best Picture nomination itself a win.
#6 The Substance It’s a great movie with a very clear and important message. I love the work that Demi Moore and Margaret Qualley did with their roles, and I strongly believe they are equal co-stars—they both did great. It’s a shame that Margaret got somewhat lost in the season, partly because Demi’s story works better. Still, Coraline Fargeout managed to create a very clever film that went mainstream and probably made some people think. At least, I hope so.	#6 Emilia Pérez I still believe that, even after everything that happened, it will get votes. Not for the top 5, but somewhere close. I guess the Netflix PR machine is really going strong. Let’s hope next year it will work for a truly deserving project.
#7 A Complete Unknown I truly respect Timothée Chalamet for everything he did in the complicated role of Bob Dylan—I really do. The movie itself, while perfectly fine, isn’t anything groundbreaking. I enjoyed it, and I can recommend it to anyone. But does it do something to push cinema or the narrative forward? Not really. It’s just a very good biopic.	#7 Wicked It would be strange to give an Oscar for Part 1 of a movie, and I’m sure the creators knew they were risking awards for both parts in favor of making money twice.
#8 Nickel Boys While I really appreciate the idea and the bold cinematography the movie provides, I just couldn’t connect with it the way I wanted to. It’s very confusing for an unprepared viewer, and I was that unprepared viewer. Plus, it really feels long, and that’s not what I want to feel when I watch a movie.	#8 I'm Still Here Unfortunately, this one was released too late, so the buildup was somewhat lost, even though the actual material is great. Voters have screeners, but many of them want to experience it in cinemas. More importantly, they want to hear the hype from the audience. And we, as the audience, only got the chance to see it shortly before the Oscars.
#9 Emilia Pérez While I didn’t have any major complaints about this one when I saw it at the press screening (which was before the whole drama— and I mean the whole drama, even before Mexican people and a lot of others educated me on why this movie is so problematic), I still didn’t consider it something worth the awards season. I really want to talk to industry professionals who pushed it that much and hear their point of view because it’s very confusing. This movie might work as a silly musical or even a satire, but when you learn that this was not the intention... no. Just no.	#9 Dune: Part Two This is the most unwatched film in the category, so it will have many "Abstains," and it’s still hard to push for something that isn’t just one complete film, but something consisting of many parts.
Abstain: Dune: Part Two I’m sorry, Denis Villeneuve, but I just couldn’t bring myself to watch the first one—and now here we are.	#10 Nickel Boys Maybe it’s #9, but still, I can see a scenario where the votes were as confused as I was. But it’s very cool to see this type of film being nominated.

You can read my full reviews of the Best Picture nominees here:

Oscars 2025 Best Picture Nominees, Ranked

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